2007 Was The Year of Social Media. 2008 is the Year of Mobile Media.

Two things to know before reading further:
1. This entry is more observation than prediction.
2. By Mobile, what I really mean is the opposite of "immobile" or simply put—stuff you can take with you (think portable).

The way we interact with technology is changing.  Computers used to be about work.  Then they quickly became about play.  Then work and play began to blur all together.  Laptops and wireless set us free, but then laptops started feeling like work again.  Social media, though it has real business applications feels like play—it's fun and quite addictive.  2007 was a big year for social media.  2008 may be the year mobile media really begins to take off.  Here's a few thoughts to consider:

The iPhone Effect
Whether or not Apple corners the mobile market is irrelevant.   Apple has proven that the mobile experience doesn't have to suck and in fact can be delightful.  It's kicked the mobile industry in the ass and is forcing them to innovate.  This means that the mobile experience is going to get better for all of us, whether we choose to buy an iPhone, a Verizon Voyager or something else.  The iPhone effect is making people feel like they need a "smart phone" the same way the RAZR made people feel like they needed a thin phone that did less but looked really cool.  Better mobile experiences will eventually lead to more mobile behavior.

Mobile Content, Functionality and Engagement
Widgets such as PayPal's latest entry into the market offer us a glimpse into the future.  The hub and spoke model of the Web where all roads lead to Rome.com is becoming obsolete.  Now we can even buy stuff through widgets which can be found virtually anywhere on the net.  Fragmentation continues, proving it can stand the test of time by rearing it's head in not only traditional media—but on the Web and in even on the cutting edge of social media.  Users will engage with content and features where it makes sense for them—on their terms and they can take it with them.

The Mobile Web
The Web isn't just on our computers and laptops anymore.  It's on lots of devices and the experience we have with it keeps getting better.  I actually prefer accessing Facebook on my iPhone because it's easy to use, less cluttered and fun.  I can play around with it with the TV on in the background, or when I'm on the road.  The upcoming open source model supported by Google's Android platform has the potential to eventually make the mobile Web ubiquitous.  Amazon's Kindle may not be the e-book solution we've all been waiting for, but it certainly offers hints of disruption, especially as it pertains to students/education.  The mobile Web offers the promise of freedom in the sense that it makes the Web fun again.  We'll eventually be able to buy stuff when on the go and some banks even support mobile interactions.  Being away from our desktops and laptops which now feel like work will make the mobile Web a welcome escape.

A Mobile Network
Just recently I had lunch at a Corner Bakery which now offers free Wi-Fi similar to Panera.  As more businesses offer free Wi-Fi, we can enjoy all the benefits of a better mobile experience + speedy connection to the internet.  Social experiences will become mobile as we keep up with our networks not only though Websites. but through widgets and multiple devices.

2008 is a good year to think beyond Websites and start thinking about lifestyles—how we live and why we do what we do.  The Web isn't going away—but the way we interact with it, might just turn into a moving target.  Actually, it already is.

Comments

[Bud Caddell]

David, you took the words out of my mouth today!

http://www.passion2publish.com/2007/12/2008-the-shift.html

[John Dodds]

Do people still have websites?

[David Armano]

Yes John, people still have Websites. And pets too. ;-)

[Shashi Bellamkonda]

David,

Your post is right on. This is already a important part of communication in India where they seem to have skipped the PC stage of the Internet totally.

I have to plug my day job at Network Solutions( and my product). We realize that small business will want to have a mobile presence. So we launched http://www.BuildMyMobi.com for novices to easily build websites for mobile devices.

[John Dodds]

You're not referring to those poor fish I hope!

[Ryan Anderson]

I agree completely, David. Mobile has been on the verge of being useful for years, but it's only been recently that the protectionist approach to how it's monetized has changed.

However, until a defacto standard emerges, being able to create really cool mobile content will be limited by the cost of developing and testing on 5,000 different platforms.

[Doug Meacham]

David, I totally agree with your "observation" and the concept of the iPhone Effect. The truth is, the classic "cellphone" was never a good platform for delivering a mobile web experience. The iPhone is marketed as a phone but we both know it is much more than that. It's a mobile computing platform.
While 2008 will likely be the year things start to heat up, I wonder how things will evolve in the US? Will wireless carriers continue to be the primary conduit to the wireless web or will they be disrupted by new technologies and players?

[MaX]

2008 the year of mobility. Even though it is not a prediction, it is maybe what we would like 2008 to be. The added question is where can it be? US, Europe and Japan where it is "more" mobile since long time? And that is pretty much about it, yes to me; it is technically possible on a very small geographical area. Which population? Up to the age of people -able to buy- buying an IPhone today? From 15 to 30 years old?
In a general and simple way, the wave of -mobile- social networking is not understood by people over 35yo? Mobility is still not seen as an asset that has something to do with "the relation" but only with technology.
Therefore, yes, I believe that younger’s see the material as "social", it will take time -one generation?- until the old wild users disappear... And then there is the question of the price which might be free in US, Europe, and Japan… not at all (or far from enough) the case in other part of the world…

Regards,
MaX travelling on the less sexiest (as far as ICT is concerned) countries of the world…

[Bernie Goldbach]

I've pulled my mail onto my mobile phone since 2004 and watched how the process got easier year after year. The Blackberry effect may prove to be much more potent than the iPhone effect when dealing with the best way to shift the time burden of office correspondence--shift your mail burden to your idle hours when less productive on the road or when waiting for action. If you can work--easily work--your direct email correspondence while mobile, you get more value out of a smart phone than ever expected. I would be surprised to see that the iPhone delivers the best technology when handling e-mail on the move.

[David J]

I'm curious to know if anyone has any thoughts on how the Windows Mobile platform may evolve to address the "iPhone Effect"? Can it evolve? Could it thrive? Will it fade?

[Daniel]

David -

This blog post hit home for two reasons:

1) I'm big on mobile. While I don't have a "smart" phone, I use my mobile Web (off-deck, mind you) all the time. It'll be exciting to see what happens when more companies budget in mobile marketing experiments. It'll also be exciting to see what happens with Android.

2) I just wrote a piece about mobile marketing in 2008 for the January issue of Marketing News. My sources said that, basically, 2008 won't be the year, but we can look for real growth for mobile in 2009.

I'll send you a copy of the story when it comes out, if you want.

-d

[Matt Dickman]

David -- I think 2008 is a bit premature for the year of mobile. I've been following mobile and recommending it all the way back in the Palm I (1999) days through the early phone browsers to the point we are now.

I agree that the iPhone has unveiled the potential to a lot of people in a way that we've never seen before. The mobile web can be cool, functional and (semi) fast. But, right now it's expensive and only used by a very small percentage of the population.

I think the true year of mobile will be when devices like the iPhone are standard, hardware costs a lot less and data rates come down to the land of reality. More over, now that large scale media companies are taking notice (ala your Fox on the iPhone video) mid/small companies will see the signal to start experimentation.

I would guess this happens more in the 2010-2013 range. The next two years, however, are crucial to build the networks and push the devices to be more useful and prevalent.

[David Armano]

Matt,

Great assessment. I wouldn't disagree with any of it. If I wanted to be 100 percent accurate, I would say that 2008 is the year we saw the beginning of a turning point, but that makes for a much less interesting post.

So for me 2008 is symbolic. It may be there year we got a taste of what the future has in store for us.

[Angi]

Does anybody know a company that sells software that can text message to a database?

[renee]

As I am reading and writing on my Palm Treo phone at this moment, I'm thrilled to see the mobile world awake! I'm a breastfeeding WAHM w/a 4 month old daughter and a fledgling biz. Mobile web has SAVED ME FROM THE EVIL TV! Go mobility! (Oh yeah... no need to have wi-fi either.)

cheers,
renee
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http://21stCenturyParenting.com

[Edward Vielmetti]

mobile web ftw. but that's 2007.

mobile web is when you have a conversation at the bus depot with someone who says "I'm thinking about getting a phone with internet just so I can see when the bus is going to come."

mobile web is twitter from the interstate highway, not from the airport lounge; or twitter from the bus, like I do every day.

2008 is "making money on the mobile web". can't monetize with search ads, people search differently. so what is going to fund this development, who is going to make the mobile web site that gets $1-$2/click for use? find that out.