Shotgun + Sustainable

(click for larger image)

Heather, our head of business development walked into my office with a problem. She wanted to show two types of marketing strategies visually, and so we took to the white board and came up with this. Looking at it I knew right away that I was biased toward one of these approaches—the sustainable type. Think Nike + vs. the Dove Real Beauty video. But taking a step back, I wonder if both are needed—strategies that result in the quick hits combined with initiatives that have a much longer shelf life. Advantages to the "shotgun" bursts is that you get pull that trigger pretty quickly and see what gets hit. Disadvantages are each on of those "hits" if you are fortunate enough to get one, is short-lived. So you have to keep loading up that shotgun.

Sustainable strategies take a bit more planning to target and grow over time. Think applications which evolve and grow over time. Users, consumers, and customers build affinity for that service through the interactions they have with it. These become both interaction and feedback "loops" which over time can be sustained if designed right. Thing about iGoogle.

I suppose the lines can completely blur between the two. As I think about my experience in the world famous Oscar Mayer Wiener Mobile I would have probably thought that would have been a shotgun strategy if I was around back when it was first conceived. Over 50 years later, turns out it's pretty sustainable and even scalable (going from 1 to 7 vehicles).

I guess what's left is determining if your organization is doing both. Maybe it doesn't start with strategy either. I'm approaching year 3 of blogging and truth be told—I can't stop. I can't stop the writing, the visuals and the thinking. Maybe it's sustainable after all—though if you read my first 10 posts, you can detect a shotgun somewhere in there. Which one are you doing more of these days?

Comments

[Dr. William J. Ward]

Dave

Good points. I've noticed the difference of sustainability on blogs. Once popular blogs have faded and the posts have run out of steam. Many of the most popular blogs and web celebrities are the most consistent. Why did one find it sustainable while the other faded away?

Luck, timing, and hard work may all be factors.

Keep digging for worms!

[Scott Moore]

I like the visual. I have different thoughts on the shotgun metaphor.

When I think of "the shotgun approach", it's usually been as a reference to taking blind shots at a target (goal) and hoping to hit the bullseye (solution or success). It calls attention to the randomness of attaining success and the difficulty of *repeating* the success.

Another metaphor is the "texas sharpshooter fallacy" where shots are taken blindly and then a target is painted around the hits. This is apt when people experiment with no explicit goal and then, if something takes off, claim they are experts.

To maintain the shooting metaphor, sustained success comes from knowing what you are aiming for, taking some test shots, adjusting and repeating. This implies that when there is a new target, chances of success for hitting the target with fewer rounds fired increase.

I don't mean to undermine innovation and experimentation. But even when using a shotgun, it works best when one is trying for a target, but not a bullseye.

[Shawn Petriw]

Yes, you need both approaches. These are much like the "Adaptive Walk" and the "Random Jump" described in Eric Beinhocker's excellent book, The Origin of Wealth, The Radical Remaking of Economics and What it Means for Business and Society.

The optimum method for achieving higher and higher levels of evolution is to combine both strategies.

[Stefano Maggi]

I agree. Shotgun + Sustainable strategy causes targeted communication. Customizing and sharing experiences is fundamental and represents a real evolution of the digital world. I wrote a little bit more about it here http://stefanomaggi.blogspot.com/2008/11/user-revolution-moving-from-almost.html

[Taylor Davidson]

There is also the aspect of timing: many "shotgun" attemps become "sustainable" over time as their impact and worth is proved during the feedback and response from the initial hits. Perhaps that's why it's necessary to do both?

[DA]

Taylor, I think you win the cigar. ;-)

[Rob Jacobs]

What is amazing is how much this relates to education and teaching students standards and objectives. The most effective way of course is to build a sustainable approach to planning and execution. This increases the chance the of hitting all of the most essential parts of the curriculum.

Too often though, we use the shotgun approach, or as I call it "Spray and Pray." This going a mile wide but only an inch deep. Not effective for long term success.

Social networking and media have much to share with those of us in teaching and education fields.

[bonnieL]

David - Would you be so kind as to juxtapose both of your visualizations into a single one and let us take a look at it? Could it be that the juxtaposition offers the greatest sustainability in most instances? Or perhaps a series of juxtapositions. Thanks.

ciao,
bonnieL

[NWGuy]

It seems like Taylor and Bonnie are on the same path. The initial diagram is more shotgun/spray and pray; the sustainable path is more of an optimal environment.

I believe that if feedback is incorporated than the shotgun impacts could "hover" over/under the sustainable image but on the right tangent. My math will have to be refreshed to use the right terminology but over time the deviations will diminish and the shotgun can transform into the sustainable.

It sounds like that is the path/trajectory of your blog over time?

[Rotkapchen]

Ah David. You know that optimal design always says the answer is both and neither (design dichotomy) -- often a third middle state, with unique properties that neither of the other two can provide: e.g. super-chilled water.

Actually, there's a continuum (there's ALWAYs a continuum). Shotgun is effectively "mass marketing", the other end is not targeted but is "one-to-one". In the mid-90s (yes, this is a very old topic), I stumbled on the topic of Mass Customization -- a time when I respected Joseph Pine's writings: http://www.managingchange.com/masscust/overview.htm. Which might have been a middle.

They're all wrong in reality, because the focus of the continuum is flawed. They're based on a 'push' model rather than a 'draw' model. In a 'draw' model you're not worried about who you attract, you simply figure out how to address their needs (or not). It's a model that focuses on the relationship and not the pursuit (a major fallacy with most CRM technologies that are focused on the 'next' client and not the 'current' ones).

As in real relationships, the advice is the same: rather than worry finding the 'right' person to marry, focus on becoming the person that would attract the person you'd want to marry.

[PMcGowan]

David,

A couple of thoughts: First, Roger Martin in "The Opposable Mind" would say that there's a blend somewhere -- which others here have also suggested.

I ask: Why only two models? What about smart bombs -- with a guy in the field with a laser sight to guide the bomb in? Why just one shotgun -- what if you had 4 or 5 shotguns all from different angles pointed at or near the same target?

Not that either of these scenarious would be cost affordable -- however, they may expand the conversation beyond conventional wisdom of this v. that... and expand it into something more complex and akin to reality like: this v. that v. that other thing v. that over there v. this over here.

It seems to me that the world is moving too fast to depend on one methodology or even on a single metaphor. Time is the 4th Dimension -- and while shotgun v. rifle seems convenient, timing is of paramount importance regardless of what kind of round is loaded in the chamber.

[Clinton Skakun]

Great topic, very inspiring!

I'd have to say I used to do both. Then around a year or two ago I got it into my head that giving up half way through a project was just tossing hard work and effort down the drain.

The illustration of -shotgun- vs +sustainable+ is extremely effective. Your blog is something that I'm glad you decided to continue with.

[Lindsey]

I agree with Taylor that is also has to do with timing and some planning too. It is important to use both approaches to see what really works and could be used in the sustainable for the long term.